Scenario and modelling, pathways, tool development, policy recommendations

Work Package 08

Abstract:

This work package continues the full-ESM and thermal-ESM work from WP01. It aims to consolidate the thermal-ESM and update it with latest data (e.g. climate data). It further aims to drive policy recommendations through interaction with policy makers and the development of modelling tools that can support stakeholder decision making for thermal energy system transformation. It also aims to extend the time horizon of the model through updating data and underlying assumptions to reflect the latest status on the ground. Finally, it will deliver an updated energy perspective for the whole energy system with special emphasize on the heating and cooling sector.

Objectives:

This work package represents phase 2 of the work initiated in WP01.
Developing a system-level understanding of the thermal energy system is important to map out the decarbonization pathways for heating and cooling. The thermal-ESM work WP01 aims to building modelling software and produce scenarios based on existing data. However, insights about viable solutions for achieving the energy and climate policy goals are likely to evolve (e.g. the role of energy storage). Moreover, energy system models sit at the intersection of predictive and normative modelling they aim to both predict future energy system change and shape that change. Therefore, it is important to continuously update and re-evaluate such models.
This work package carries forward the work in WP01 with several goals to:

  1. further drive implementation of findings related to policy making;
  2. increase the potential impact by developing end-user focused tools that can support decisions makers.
  3. continuously update the energy model to reflect ongoing technical and policy trends, and feed back into policy with update pathways and policy recommendations;
  4. extend the pathway projection time horizons (2060+).

Tasks:

  • T8.1 Policy implementation of thermal energy system decarbonization pathways
  • T8.2 Tool development
  • T8.3 Further development of energy system modelling
  • T8.4 Extension of modelling time horizon, update of energy perspectives

Technology Readiness Level (TRL): from 4 to 6

Expected Outcomes / Milestones:

  • Organized a workshop with policy makers
  • Tool prototypes presented to stakeholders
  • Selection and integration of data for new phase
  • Run of model with 2060 horizon

Duration: January 2025 - December 2028 (48 months)

Lead: Dr. Jonathan Chambers (UNIGE-EE)

Team:

 WP07

WP09