WP01

Thermal Energy System Modelling at the Mesoscale: developing spatially resolved decarbonization pathways for thermal energy

Abstract:

Energy system models (ESM) describe and optimize the energy flows between resources, conversion technologies and the demand across many sectors; but to-date such models have low spatial resolution and/or have focused mainly on electricity supply. To decarbonize the heating and cooling energy system, there is a need for techno-economic thermal-ESM, including cost aspects and increase spatial resolution to "mesoscale", to capture the spatial constraints of thermal energy supply, distribution, and demand. This work package aims to develop thermal-ESM, and a comprehensive dataset on thermal energy resources and technologies. The model will be used to explore decarbonization pathways and will be soft-linked to whole energy system models, thereby ensuring results that are part of a coherent whole. It ultimately also allows to quantify the value of both renewable heating and cooling as well as of negative CO2 emissions.

Objectives:

Energy system models (ESM) are widely used to analyze current energy systems, predict, and inform future development pathways, and assess policy measures. ESMs describe and optimize the energy flows between resources, conversion technologies, and the demand across many sectors; but to-date such models have low spatial resolution (e.g. single point for whole country) and/or have focused mainly on the electricity supply side. To address the challenges of heating and cooling decarbonization, a much-improved understanding of the thermal energy system model (thermal- ESM) is needed. Developing a system-level understanding of the thermal energy system is important for proposing cost-effective decarbonization pathways, modelling the impact of different technologies, and highlighting technology needs, e.g. for seasonal storage these issues cannot be addressed by looking at individual technologies or sectors in isolation.

The overall objective of this work package is to support energy planning at local, cantonal and national level. This WP hence aims to substantially improve the state of the art of techno-economic thermal-ESM by

  1. integrating a range of (novel) technologies and data sources
  2. applying state-of-the-art modelling theory & methods with "mesoscale" spatio-temporal resolution
  3. linking thermal-ESM with full system ESMs.

This will be used to explore scenarios and generate thermal energy system transition pathways.

Tasks:

  • T1.1 Characterization of thermal energy system elements
  • T1.2 Thermal energy system model
  • T1.3 Scenario analysis and transition pathway
  • T1.4 Link to full energy system model

Technology Readiness Level (TRL): from 3 to 4

Expected Outcomes / Milestones:

  • Data exchange formats established, database structure defined, and data transfer system defined
  • First version of thermal-ESM model software.
  • First generation decarbonization pathway using thermal-ESM
  • Link established between thermal-ESM and full-ESM

Duration: January 2021 - December 2024 (48 months)

Lead: Dr. Jonathan Chambers, UNIGE-EE

Publication: see list here.

Team:

 Overview

WP02